Henry Obegi Research

Opportunities

Stocks Outside the Portfolio That Would Benefit Most

Top 5 Opportunities

RankStockCategoryPricePE Benefit ScoreUV RatingSector Return
1 Newmont Mining Gold $130 N/A 21.1 STRONG BUY +0.6%
2 Barrick Mining Gold $51 N/A 21.1 STRONG BUY +0.6%
3 Leidos Defense $175 N/A 20.3 STRONG BUY +0.2%
4 Booz Allen Hamilton Defense $79 N/A 20.3 STRONG BUY +0.2%
5 Bristow Group Energy $48 N/A 15.9 STRONG BUY -2.0%

Opportunity Overview

DEFENSE

Leidos (LDOS) Score: 20.3

$175 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $22B
UV Rating: STRONG BUY UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: -6.7% 3M Mom: -8.4% Rev Growth: +3.1%

LDOS combines clear undervaluation (30–40% vs peer/historical fair) with accelerating bookings (1.3x), record backlog, and robust FCF/margin expansion...

UV Updated: N/A

STRONG BUY rated defense IT services. Major government contractor for intelligence, cyber, and defense modernization. Benefits from increased defense spending on tech-enabled solutions.

Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) Score: 20.3

$79 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $10B
UV Rating: STRONG BUY UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: -13.5% 3M Mom: -5.5% Rev Growth: +12.4%

BAH is a high-quality, cash-generative federal tech/consulting leader with a record backlog, superior ROE, and sector-best profitability trading 35%–5...

UV Updated: N/A

STRONG BUY rated defense consulting. Deep integration with US intelligence and defense agencies. Mission-critical advisory services see increased demand during geopolitical crises.

General Dynamics (GD) Score: 10.3

$357 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $97B
UV Rating: BUY UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: +0.1% 3M Mom: +4.5% Rev Growth: +10.1%

GD’s multi-year product and shipyard investments are converting to earnings and cash, with 2026 guidance calling for higher margins, EPS ~$16.1–$16.2,...

UV Updated: N/A

Submarines (Columbia-class), Gulfstream jets, IT services. Naval assets critical in Middle East theater.

RTX Corporation (RTX) Score: 0.3

$203 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $272B
UV Rating: HOLD UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: +1.6% 3M Mom: +15.8% Rev Growth: +9.7%

RTX’s earnings power and FCF have inflected on durable demand, record backlog, and credible productivity execution, with 2026 guidance pointing to fur...

UV Updated: N/A

Raytheon missiles (Patriot, Tomahawk) + Pratt & Whitney engines. Dual benefit from military operations and defense budget increases.

Northrop Grumman (NOC) Score: 0.3

$724 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $103B
UV Rating: HOLD UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: +5.1% 3M Mom: +26.6% Rev Growth: +2.2%

NOC’s fundamentals and backlog-driven visibility, superior FCF growth, and macro tailwinds are compelling, but the stock trades at a 27% premium to it...

UV Updated: N/A

B-21 bomber, space systems, cyber. Long-cycle defense contracts provide revenue visibility. Nuclear modernization beneficiary.

ENERGY

Bristow Group (VTOL) Score: 15.9

$48 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $1B
UV Rating: STRONG BUY UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: +8.0% 3M Mom: +27.2% Rev Growth: +5.3%

Shares trade at a steep discount to historical fair value (~51%) despite a strengthened balance sheet, visible 2026 EBITDA growth of ~25%, and structu...

UV Updated: N/A

STRONG BUY rated energy services. Offshore helicopter services for oil and gas platforms. Higher oil prices drive increased offshore activity, directly boosting demand for Bristow's fleet.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) Score: -4.1

$153 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $644B
UV Rating: HOLD UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: +10.9% 3M Mom: +31.6% Rev Growth: -4.5%

XOM’s execution, cost savings, and advantaged Permian/Guyana plus Golden Pass ramp support resilient cash generation, but 2025 showed declining revenu...

UV Updated: N/A

Largest US oil major. Direct beneficiary of oil price increases. Production capacity in Permian Basin and Guyana.

Chevron (CVX) Score: -4.1

$187 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $373B
UV Rating: HOLD UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: +9.9% 3M Mom: +23.6% Rev Growth: -3.3%

At $183.87, CVX screens overvalued versus historical fair value while technicals are stretched and insider selling is heavy, capping near-term upside....

UV Updated: N/A

Second-largest US oil major. Strong free cash flow at high oil prices. Less Middle East exposure than European majors.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Score: -4.1

$53 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $52B
UV Rating: HOLD UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: +18.4% 3M Mom: +26.4% Rev Growth: -20.3%

At $47.11, OXY screens modestly overvalued versus peer and historical fair values while core operating trends remain negative and peer-relative perfor...

UV Updated: N/A

Highly leveraged to oil prices. Permian Basin producer. Buffett's large stake provides floor. Higher beta to oil than XOM/CVX.

GOLD

Note: Gold is trading near all-time highs (~$2,900/oz). While geopolitical events support further upside, position sizing should account for elevated entry prices.

Newmont Mining (NEM) Score: 21.1

$130 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $142B
UV Rating: STRONG BUY UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: -1.5% 3M Mom: +43.3% Rev Growth: +22.2%

NEM combines best-in-class profitability, explosive FCF, and a fortress balance sheet with clear operational catalysts and an active buyback, yet trad...

UV Updated: N/A

World's largest gold miner. Gold is the classic geopolitical hedge. Operating leverage to gold price (costs are ~$1200/oz, gold at ~$2900). Gold at all-time highs near $2,900/oz. While geopolitical events support further upside, entry at these levels carries higher risk of mean reversion. Position sizing should reflect elevated prices.

Barrick Mining (B) Score: 21.1

$51 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $85B
UV Rating: STRONG BUY UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: -4.2% 3M Mom: +22.7% Rev Growth: +31.2%

Shares are deeply undervalued versus peer and historical fair values while the company posts record margins, surging FCF, and a fortified net-cash bal...

UV Updated: N/A

STRONG BUY rated major gold/copper miner (ticker changed from GOLD to B). Benefits from flight-to-safety into gold. Copper exposure adds industrial metal upside. Gold at all-time highs near $2,900/oz. While geopolitical events support further upside, entry at these levels carries higher risk of mean reversion. Position sizing should reflect elevated prices.

CYBERSECURITY

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Score: 12.4

$149 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $104B
UV Rating: BUY UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: -19.0% 3M Mom: -21.7% Rev Growth: +14.9%

Despite bearish technicals, PANW’s fundamentals are accelerating: double-digit organic growth, expanding operating leverage, and elite cash generation...

UV Updated: N/A

State-sponsored cyberattacks escalate during military conflicts. Iran has demonstrated significant cyber capabilities (Shamoon, etc.). Increased spending on cyber defense.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) Score: 12.4

$372 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $94B
UV Rating: BUY UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: -20.7% 3M Mom: -26.9% Rev Growth: +29.4%

Despite bearish technicals and insider selling, CrowdStrike’s fundamentals inflected positively: record ARR acceleration, expanding non-GAAP profitabi...

UV Updated: N/A

Endpoint security leader. Government and enterprise demand spikes during geopolitical crises. Zero-trust architecture demand.

Fortinet (FTNT) Score: 12.4

$79 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $61B
UV Rating: BUY UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: -3.7% 3M Mom: -2.6% Rev Growth: +14.2%

Despite bearish technicals and notable insider selling, FTNT’s fundamentals and valuation set up a high-probability 12‑month re-rating: superior growt...

UV Updated: N/A

Network security (firewalls, SASE). Critical infrastructure protection becomes priority during state-level conflicts.

DEFENSE ETF

iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) Score: 0.3

$244 | P/E: N/A | Market Cap: $15B
UV Rating: N/A UV Range: N/A 1M Mom: +4.3% 3M Mom: +18.8% Rev Growth: N/A

UV Updated: N/A

Broad exposure to defense sector. Lower single-stock risk. Top holdings: RTX, GD, NOC, LDOS, BAH.

Hedge Recommendations

Direct Hedges

  • VIX Calls: Buy VIX call options (2-3 month expiry). VIX typically spikes 30-80% during geopolitical events. Cost is low during calm markets.
  • SPY Puts: Out-of-the-money SPY puts (5-7% below current) provide portfolio insurance. 2-3 month expiry recommended.
  • TLT (Treasuries): Flight-to-safety into US Treasuries during crises. 10-year yields typically drop 20-50bps.

Sector Rotation

  • XLE (Energy ETF): Direct oil price beneficiary. Add on the day of the strike announcement.
  • ITA (Defense ETF): Broad defense exposure without single-stock risk. Top holdings: RTX, LMT, BA, GD, NOC.
  • GLD (Gold): Classic geopolitical hedge. Gold tends to rally 5-15% in the first month of conflicts.
Timing matters. The optimal entry for defense and energy names is on the announcement day or within the first week. Waiting for "confirmation" typically means missing the 5-10% initial move. For buying the dip in quality tech/growth, wait for VIX to spike above 25. This historically marks the maximum fear point and the best entry.