Henry Obegi Research

Portfolio Impact

19 Positions Assessed | Weight-Based Analysis with Reallocation Scenarios

Weighted Portfolio Metrics

Weighted Oil Sensitivity 2.05/10
Weighted Portfolio Impact (Current) -3.4%
Weighted Portfolio Impact (Recommended) -2.8%
Total Positions 19
Bond Capital Available $5,000,000

Section A: Current Portfolio

StockWeightPricePE ImpactActionOil Sens. UV RatingUV Range1M Mom.3M Mom.
Alphabet 18.9% $311 N/A -3.0% hold 1/10 N/A N/A -7.4% -2.7%
Amazon 13.0% $210 N/A -3.0% hold 2/10 N/A N/A -13.6% -10.0%
Microsoft 10.3% $393 N/A +0.0% hold 1/10 N/A N/A -18.5% -20.2%
Alibaba 6.9% $144 N/A -10.0% trim 6/10 N/A N/A -18.0% -8.4%
Invesco QQQ (Nasdaq-100) 5.9% $607 N/A -3.0% hold 2/10 N/A N/A -4.1% -1.9%
Bubills 3M EUR 4.9% $0 N/A +0.0% hold 0/10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
iShares S&P 500 4.6% $689 N/A -3.0% hold 2/10 N/A N/A -1.3% +0.4%
LVMH 4.1% $544 N/A -6.0% hold 2/10 N/A N/A +0.2% -14.4%
Tencent 3.8% $518 N/A -10.0% trim 5/10 N/A N/A -16.6% -15.3%
Procter & Gamble 3.8% $167 N/A +3.0% hold 3/10 N/A N/A +13.5% +12.8%
Apple 3.7% $264 N/A -6.0% hold 3/10 N/A N/A +3.0% -5.3%
MercadoLibre 3.7% $1,758 N/A +0.0% hold 2/10 N/A N/A -22.5% -15.2%
Mastercard 3.3% $517 N/A -3.0% hold 1/10 N/A N/A -0.8% -6.1%
AXA 3.1% $41 N/A -6.0% hold 4/10 N/A N/A +8.9% +6.6%
Meta Platforms 2.6% $648 N/A -3.0% hold 1/10 N/A N/A -3.1% +0.0%
Cash USD 2.6% $0 N/A +3.0% hold 0/10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Hermes 2.4% $2,049 N/A -3.0% hold 2/10 N/A N/A -0.0% -2.4%
Taiwan Semiconductor 2.3% $375 N/A -15.0% trim 3/10 N/A N/A +9.4% +28.5%
T-Bills 3M USD 0.1% $0 N/A +3.0% hold 0/10 N/A N/A N/A N/A

Section B: Recommended Reallocation

Position Changes

StockActionFrom WeightTo WeightReason
Alibaba Trim 40% 6.9% 4.1% High geopolitical risk (negative)
Tencent Trim 40% 3.8% 2.3% High geopolitical risk (negative)
Taiwan Semiconductor Trim 40% 2.3% 1.4% High geopolitical risk (significant negative)
Procter & Gamble Increase 3.8% 5.1% Defensive reallocation from trimmed positions
Mastercard Increase 3.3% 4.6% Defensive reallocation from trimmed positions
iShares S&P 500 Increase 4.6% 5.9% Defensive reallocation from trimmed positions
Cash USD Increase 2.6% 3.9% Defensive reallocation from trimmed positions

Bond Capital Deployment ($5,000,000)

AllocationAmount%Reason
Defense ETF (ITA) $1,500,000 30% Direct beneficiary of increased military spending
Gold (GLD) $1,000,000 20% Classic geopolitical hedge, gold historically +30-75% in ME conflicts
Energy (XLE) $1,000,000 20% Oil price spike beneficiary, energy sector median +5% at 1M
VIX Calls / Volatility Protection $500,000 10% Tail risk hedge, VIX spikes average +5-10 points in geopolitical events
Keep in Short-Term Bonds $1,000,000 20% Maintain dry powder for post-dip opportunities

Section C: Charts