| Event | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 Gulf War | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Iraq War | +1.7% | -1.1% | +1.7% | +13.5% | +18.7% | +26.0% |
| 2011 Libya Intervention | +1.6% | +2.8% | +2.2% | -0.6% | -4.9% | +10.2% |
| 2017 Syria Strikes | +0.1% | -0.3% | +1.8% | +3.0% | +8.2% | +12.7% |
| 2018 Iran JCPOA Exit | +1.0% | +1.6% | +3.9% | +7.0% | +2.4% | +7.4% |
| 2019 Aramco Attack | -0.3% | -0.9% | -1.7% | +5.3% | -20.3% | +12.4% |
| 2020 Soleimani | +0.4% | +1.0% | +2.1% | -23.0% | -1.7% | +14.4% |
| 2022 Russia-Ukraine | +2.2% | +1.7% | +5.7% | -7.2% | -2.1% | -7.1% |
| 1979 Iranian Revolution | -2.6% | -1.0% | 0.0% | +4.0% | +3.0% | +8.0% |
| 1973 Oil Embargo | 0.0% | -1.0% | -5.5% | -10.0% | -17.0% | -42.0% |
| MEDIAN | +0.4% | -0.3% | +1.8% | +3.0% | -1.7% | +10.2% |
Iraq invades Kuwait. US-led coalition mobilizes, then liberates Kuwait in Jan 1991. Oil doubled from $17 to $36/bbl. S&P 500 fell ~17% over 3 months before recovering.
US invades Iraq. Markets had sold off in prior months on uncertainty. Invasion day was a relief rally. S&P rallied ~30% over 12 months.
NATO airstrikes begin in Libya. Oil spiked ~15% on supply disruption fears. Markets dipped briefly then recovered within weeks.
US launches 59 Tomahawk missiles at Syrian airbase. Markets barely reacted. S&P was flat on the day, continued upward trend.
Trump withdraws US from Iran nuclear deal, reimposing sanctions. Oil rose ~20% over 6 months. S&P fell ~5% over next 2 months.
Iran-linked drones strike Saudi Aramco Abqaiq facility, knocking out 5% of global oil supply. Oil spiked 15% on Monday open, recovered within 2 weeks.
US drone strike kills Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad. S&P fell 0.7% on the day, VIX spiked to 14.5. Markets recovered within 1 week.
Russia invades Ukraine. Oil spiked 25% in first 2 weeks, hitting $130/bbl. S&P fell ~13% from Jan to Jun 2022 (combined with rate hikes).
Shah of Iran deposed. Oil doubled from $14 to $34/bbl by mid-1979, peaking at $39.50/bbl in April 1980 (+182%). Iran production collapsed from 5.5 to under 1 mb/d. S&P dipped 2.6% initially but recovered within 3 trading days. Gold surged to $843/oz by January 1980 (+271% from start of revolution). Source: Federal Reserve History, Brookings Institution.
OPEC declares oil embargo against the US and allies supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Oil quadrupled from $2.90 to $11.65/bbl (+302%). S&P 500 fell 48.2% peak-to-trough (Jan 1973 to Oct 1974). Did not recover pre-embargo levels for 5.8 years (July 1980). The worst bear market since the Great Depression. Source: FRED, Federal Reserve History.